Belarus will not be a victim

 Belarus changes its military doctrine due to war in Ukraine

The current armed civil conflict in Ukraine is causing unease in Belarus, the government is positioning itself to ensure that situation doesn’t spill over onto Belarusian soil

President Alexander Lukashenko spoke to the personnel of the armed forces on February 19th stating; “Wars are no longer declared and once they start, they no longer follow a conventional scenario. The experience of contemporary military conflict has revealed that over the span of just several months a rather trouble-free country can turn into an arena of hostilities and fall victim to foreign intervention, plunge into chaos, humanitarian catastrophe and civil war”.

According to President Lukashenko, besides open military invasion, foreign powers popular tools in creating dissent are using coloured revolutions, to push one sides preferred agenda. “They are based on profound transformations of human consciousness. They basically destroy fundamental values, and are substituted with surrogates and false ideas”.

Alexander Lukashenko also noted that there are economic sanctions and discriminatory measures in place which are politically motivated. “There are still attempts being made to openly dictate terms in trade and economic cooperation. Military activity is being initiated near our borders.”

Even though the President didn’t name the source of the threat a conclusion can be made that such a statement was provoked by the “hybrid war” in Ukraine.

One of the first to express his concern for this type of warfare was Former NATO adviser on security matters, a retired Dutch Major General and current Dutch politician Frank van Kappen in April 2014.

According to Frank van Kappen in 2004 there was a research project called Multiple Futures (MFP) commissioned by NATO, the main goal of which was to determine what awaits us in the future in terms of international security. Over 8 000 researchers, military representatives and politicians not only from NATO countries took part in the project.

One of the conclusions of the project was that countries (including Ukraine) located on the contact line of the “geopolitical platform” have no power over their fates; they are stuck between Russian and western spheres of influence, they are in a zone of potential conflict.

If in the past the geopolitical dividing line went through Poland, Hungary and former Czechoslovakia today this very line has shifted to the territories of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Georgia. The second conclusion is a logical continuation of the first one – in the near future Europe will inevitably face an armed conflict on the contact line of the geopolitical platform. However, warfare is taking on new forms; it will differ from previous military experience, it could take on the form of hybrid warfare.

While defining the term, General van Kappa noted that, “a country which chooses hybrid warfare makes deals with non-state actors, military groups and local community groups; contact with them is formally denied.”

It should be noted that the current events in Ukraine have deeply concerned not only NATO but the national leaders of many countries who are part of the organization. To withstand possible hybrid aggression from the eastern part of the country members of the alliance agreed to form a rapid response force, known as the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF).

As it turns out not only potential adversaries of Russia are afraid of the little green men but even its allies are having second thoughts and are considering ways to deal with them. As for Belarus, it hopes that the existing Special Operations Forces if equipped with additional modern weapons and military equipment can handle such a situation.

Additional equipment encompasses the newest in surveillance (including drones), armored vehicles, improved firearms and to buy camping equipment online for the troops. On the agenda is the modernization of combat helicopter fleet and the purchase a multi-purpose air complexes for counter-partisan operations.



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About Yana Krupenia (11 Articles)
A graduate from MSLU, faculty of multicultural communication, take great interest in politics and economics on the national and international levels. I enjoy visiting new places, drawing and painting. My goal is to deepen my knowledge and skills, and find the most suitable way to put them to work.

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